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“美元贬值交易”重燃?黄金、比特币双双创3个月新高_我的网站

薛平贵与王宝钏

一 |     

A Georgia prosecutor filed a motion on Thursday moving up a proposed trial date for Donald Trump and his allies to October in the sprawling case accusing the former president and more than a dozen other defendants of election interference.
Fani Willis, the Atlanta district attorney who brought the case against Trump, initially proposed that the trial begin on March 4, landing squarely in the middle of Trump’s other trial dates amid a busy legal calendar for the former president heading into the 2024 election. But after Kenneth Chesebro, a former Trump attorney and fellow defendant, filed a request for a speedy trial this week, Willis requested that the court set the trial to begin for “all 19 defendants” in just two months.
“Without waiving any objection as to the sufficiency of Defendant Kenneth John Chesebro’s filing, the State requests that this Court specially set the trial in this case to commence on October 23, 2023,” Willis wrote in the filing, noting that the date falls within the next court term, in accordance with Georgia criminal code.
Analysts have noted that even the initial March timeline for the trial to get underway is improbable, with a lengthy period of pre-trial motions expected to delay proceedings. Already a number of defendants have motioned to remove the case to federal court, in the first examples of pre-trial delays. But a trial set to begin in just a matter of weeks appears nearly impossible.
The indictment, which was handed up by a Georgia grand jury earlier this month, accuses Trump and his allies of orchestrating a criminal enterprise to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Trump is expected to surrender on Thursday to Fulton County authorities for booking.
Trump faces trials in New York in a case in which he stands accused of paying hush money to a porn star and in federal court in Florida on charges he mishandled classified documents. Those cases are currently scheduled to begin on March 25 and May 20. And if things go prosecutors’ way in the election conspiracy case brought by Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith, Trump would face another trial in the nation’s capital in early January.
。      文章来源:财闻  财闻海外资讯援引日经中文网报道,押注美元下跌的“贬值交易(Debasement Trade)”出现重新升温的迹象。原因是,市场开始注意到美国的财政风险。从美元流出的资金正在流向黄金和加密资产(虚拟货币)。  “贬值交易”是指在预期货币价值下跌时,将资金投向黄金、白银等与货币走势相关性较低的资产。与通货膨胀导致的货币贬值不同,这种情况被认为通常发生在财政扩张和过度的金融宽松等货币信用动摇之际。

二 |   目前,市场开始有观点认为,这种交易可能正在针对轴心货币美元展开。  显示相对于多种主要货币的美元综合走势的美元指数上周跌至98.5区间,创出3个月来的最低水平。

三 | 与7月下旬的高点相比,跌幅已达3%。

四 | 本周仍在低位区间徘徊。

五 |   相比之下,明显上涨的是黄金。作为国际指标的伦敦现货价格在8月24日的交易中升至每金衡盎司4650美元以上区间,创出3个月以来的新高。过去一周涨幅超过8%,其上涨势头还在波及白银和铂金。  另外,作为代表性虚拟货币的比特币也迅速上涨至接近8万美元,同样创出3个月来的新高。  背景是市场对美国财政状况的担忧。  美国财政部8月19日宣布将偿还期限超过10年的国债的回购注销(Buyback)的上限至少提高至目前的2倍,即40亿美元。此举旨在抑制持续上升的长期和超长期利率。  然而,美国利率的上升速度虽有所放缓,但尚未出现下降。日本市场分析师丰岛逸夫表示,“这一次甚至到了美国财政部也要采取实际行动的地步,说明财政担忧作为现实风险已经显现”,这种观点反而变得更为普遍。  美国的联邦政府债务总额于8月18日首次突破40万亿美元。由于对伊朗的战争开支膨胀等原因,截至7月的10个月的财政赤字已超过上一财年(2024年10月至2025年9月)全年的规模。  美国桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧8月21日在商业社交平台LinkedIn (领英)上表示,如果美国财政状况不发生变化,债务危机将在“三年内到来”。他指出,将资产中约10%至15%配置于黄金,“能降低投资风险并提高回报”。  长期来看,市场出现重新审视对美元过度依赖的动向。欧洲中央银行(ECB)6月公布的调查显示,2025年黄金在全球外汇储备中的占比达到27%,约30年来首次超过美国国债(22%)。买入美国国债的势头减弱,转向增持黄金的趋势日益清晰。2026年,以波兰和中国央行为代表,各国央行增持黄金的趋势将持续。

六 | 责任编辑:朱赫楠。

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Published on:10:34:55


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